If you are interested in generating more sales through word of mouth programs, there is a research paper that is a MUST read.

"Firm Generated Word-of-Mouth Communication: Evidence from a Field Test" by David Godes and Dina Mayzlin. Marketing Science, 2009, Vol. 28, No. 4. 19 pages.

I found this paper when I was referred to a peer review on the Web Analytics Association website, written by Jim Novo, who also blogged about this fascinating piece.

First of all, this is rigorous research, using control groups and all of the appropriate mathematics to measure real effects - something that is not always easy to do.

Second, its findings are counter intuitive in the context of  'Influentials Marketing' (where you find the most influential people with the largest networks and encourage them to spread your word). They are not counter intuitive if you keep a social contagion principle in mind; "The strength of weak ties"

The results:

    * Opinion leaders generate more sales for products with high levels of awareness, where persuasion is the critical requirement
    * For new products or products with low awareness... "...you should be recruiting less loyal customers and encouraging them to talk not to their friends, but to their acquaintances. This approach appears to be contrary to the “opinion leader” or “fan” approach now thought of as best practice. Because of this, a lot of books on social marketing may need to be rewritten, at least as they pertain to generating incremental Sales…" (Jim Novo).

We can add to this the lessons learned from 2 other pieces of research we have discussed here;

From 2008

    * People reported to be influential by their peers are far more likely to actually be opinion leaders than people who self-report / claim to be
    * If the consequences of recommendation are serious, (requiring persuasion) opinion leaders make a difference to message contagion rates and reach. If the consequences are mundane, and awareness is the challenge, traditional marketing is more effective

From 2009

    * 'Susceptible' customers are far more likely to start online theme/conversation cascades than an influencer (opinion leader). Influencers are required to extend and develop the cascade once started.
    * 'Respected' customers - those with a mix of strong and weak ties do the heavy lifting in propagating new themes

and from 2007

    * Duncan Watts and Jonah Paretti in a HBR thought piece showed that the fastest way to 'seed' a viral marketing cascade was with awareness campaigns to strangers as the lower propagation rates were offset by higher initial awareness numbers

Seems we need to add 2 critical questions to advocacy program design;

    * Does my product have good awareness levels already with persuasion the challenge? If yes, seek out peer reported opinion leaders who are heavy users already
    * Are the consequences (personal costs, risk) of my product relatively high? If yes, seek out peer reported opinion leaders who are heavy users already

Else

    * Recruit less loyal customers and get them to start conversations where they would not otherwise occur i.e. with strangers and acquaintances, not close friends (you get them anyway).

Get you thinking?